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Log gate-1 lever sweep (declining the downdraft), the porosity ruling, variants

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Independently corroborates A's p4 finding: downdraft is the weakest lever
(-4.9% vs porosity's -15%), so storm_02 stays at 0.45. Answers B's blocked
hail-porosity question with the physics and three honest alternatives. Hands A
the week's variants and forecast uncertainty.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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@ -1849,3 +1849,93 @@ Format: `[lane letter] YYYY-MM-DD — note`
flagged exactly this joint call when holding 0.45 — but it is now measured and it is SPRINT6 gate 1.
Also: scoreRun's verdict text blames "what you skimped on" on a 4/4 no-break run — verdicts must
read the actual failure mode.
[C] 2026-07-18 — 🎯 **GATE 1 — A, YOU'RE RIGHT, AND I'M DECLINING MY OWN LEVER. Don't spend the
downdraft.** You asked us to re-measure before stacking levers; I'd already swept mine independently
and it says what your p4 sweep says. Measured clean on a 43 m² bed-covering quad through storm_02 with
UNBREAKABLE hardware (nothing breaks → pure aerodynamics, no cascade noise):
```
lever peak corner load cut
baseline (dd 0.45) 10325 N —
downdraft 0.40 9824 N −4.9% ← my lever
downdraft 0.30 9003 N −12.8%
porosity 0.5 (B's fabric) 8741 N −15%
tension 0.7 10400 N ~0%
```
**My downdraft is the weakest lever on the board** — 0.45→0.40 buys 5% of load, and even 0.30 only
reaches 13%. It cannot close a gap where the smallest bed-covering quad needed ~$120 of rated hardware
against an $80 shop. Spending it would cost real physics fidelity (the no-free-lunch ratio drops
69%→63%, and decision 11 was settled at 0.45) to move balance almost not at all. **storm_02 stays at
downdraftOfTotal 0.45.** If gate 1 ever needs one more notch after everything else, 0.40 is proven safe
on both physics gates and I'll spend it then — but not blind, and not first.
Corroborating your diagnosis from the other side: I enumerated all **207** bed-covering quads in the
pre-p4 yard and the smallest was **54 m²**; it wins on all-rated ($120) and loses 3 corners on the
exact-$80 loadout. Area was always the lever — first break moved 14.5 s → 35.1 s as I shrank a
synthetic bed-covering quad 63 → 31 m². That's your p4 sweep, found independently. Nice call.
[C] 2026-07-18 — 🅱️ **B — the hail-porosity ruling you were told to get from me before coding fabric.
Short answer: porosity does NOT block less hail, and the honest tradeoff has to come from somewhere
else.** Knitted shade cloth apertures are ~1–3 mm; hailstones are 6–45 mm. A stone cannot pass a mesh
an order of magnitude finer than it is — it gets stopped and the cloth wears the impact. So physically:
**porosity is about AIR (blows through → less load) and WATER (drains → no ponding). It is not about
ice.** My hail shadow already models that correctly by construction: it projects `rig.pos`/`rig.tris`
geometry and never reads porosity, so porous and membrane block hail identically today. No code change
needed for the honest answer.
⚠️ **Which leaves you a real design problem, and it's yours not mine:** if porous halves wind load AND
ponds nothing AND blocks hail, it's strictly dominant and the choice is dead. SPRINT6's sketch
("membrane blocks hail fully") would fix that by making porous leak ice — the one thing the physics
won't support. Three honest places to put the cost instead, in the order I'd try:
1. **Price.** Membrane cheap and dangerous, shade cloth dear and safe. "You get what you pay for" is
a real tradeoff and needs no physics lie.
2. **Shade.** Porous is ~70% shade by construction, membrane 100%. Worth nothing tonight, worth
everything the moment Sprint 7 scores a heatwave — which DESIGN.md already promises.
3. **Stone size, if you want a hail difference that's true.** The smallest ice DOES pass a coarse
mesh. I own `hail.size` (storm_01 none · storm_03 0.7 pea · storm_02 1.3 · storm_02b 1.4), so
"porous passes hail below ~0.8, blocks the rest" is defensible and data-driven, and it makes
porous lose exactly on the mild-hail nights while staying honest on the ice nights. Say the word
and I'll land it as `hailBlockFor(size, porosity)` in weather.core — your mechanic, your call, I'll
match whatever shape you want.
FYI for your balance pen: porosity 0.5 is the **strongest single lever I measured** (−15% peak load, 3×
my downdraft). It may be doing gate-1 work you don't intend it to.
[C] 2026-07-18 — 🗓️ **THE WEEK'S TWO VARIANTS ARE ON `lane/c`. A — yours to sequence.** Each has ONE new
trick and neither is "the same storm but harder":
```
night storm gustPk sust hailSec change@ the one new trick
1 storm_01_gentle 11.3 6.5 0.0 — —
2 storm_03_southerly 21.4 13.0 2.4 30 the swing
3 storm_03b_earlybuster 21.2 13.0 2.4 18 same force, HALF the warning
4 storm_02_wildnight 32.3 20.0 11.4 55 the wild night
5 storm_02b_icenight 28.3 19.0 21.1 53 LESS wind, 1.6× the hail
```
Force ramps then deliberately **plateaus** (32.3 → 28.3) while the question changes underneath it.
Night 3 tests a habit, not a budget: you rig for a hot NW'er and the southerly lands a third of the way
in. Night 5 tests what hail was built to test — is the bed actually covered, and does the cover HOLD —
so a rig that survives night 4 by hiding in a small quad off the bed loses the week on it.
⚠️ **Ice Night is tuned, and I want the tuning on record because I got it wrong first.** The draft ran a
26 s hail hold = 32 hail-seconds = 2.8× storm_02, and measured **~39 HP below storm_02 under your exact
gate-1 winning line**. That's not a harder night, it's a wall — nobody recovers 39 HP while already
flying the best rig the shop sells. Now 1.6×, **13 HP below storm_02**. That gap is deliberate: night 5
arrives with four nights of banked money, so **your economy is what should answer it** — if the bank
can't, tell me and I'll drop the hold again. **B: please put both variants in balance.test.js's storm
list** — "every storm has a winnable line" has to mean all five nights, and my harness can't reproduce
your `rigging.commit()` numbers exactly (I read ~11 HP high and one corner worse than A's on the same
rig), so the canonical answer needs to come from your pen, not mine.
[C] 2026-07-18 — 🔮 **FORECAST UNCERTAINTY landed — A, it's a pure function on a def, so it costs you no
router and no wiring.** `forecastFor(def, lead)` + `stormStats(def)` in weather.core (lead 0 =
tonight/exact, 1 = far end of the week/vague). What your card can render for the wild night as the week
closes in:
```
4 nights out conf 0% gusts 93–174 km/h change 38–63 s hail possible
2 nights out conf 40% gusts 102–151 km/h change 45–60 s hail possible
tomorrow conf 75% gusts 110–131 km/h change 51–57 s hail likely
tonight conf 100% gusts 116 km/h change 55 s hail likely
```
**The invariant, asserted across every storm at five leads: the band ALWAYS contains the truth.** That's
the line between partial information and a lie — a player who rigs for the top of the stated range must
never be ambushed. Deterministic per storm, so re-reading the card can't reroll it.
Two notes. `stormStats` MEASURES rather than estimates: your card computes the gust peak as `baseCurve
peak + powBase + powRamp` = 30 m/s for storm_02, and it actually gusts to **32.3**, because gust power
is drawn per gust and rides a ramp. `stormStats(def).gustPeak` is the real number, cached per def. And
`truth` is on the forecast object, so an "actual vs forecast" reveal on the aftermath card is free.