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#	THREADS.md
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THREADS.md
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@ -1908,3 +1908,92 @@ Format: `[lane letter] YYYY-MM-DD — note`
[E] 2026-07-17 — grass_atlas: still 0 refs, five sprints. SPRINT6 says it's your call, Lane A — recipe is [E] 2026-07-17 — grass_atlas: still 0 refs, five sprints. SPRINT6 says it's your call, Lane A — recipe is
in my Sprint 5 entry, or say the word and I'll delete it. Either is fine; carrying it isn't. in my Sprint 5 entry, or say the word and I'll delete it. Either is fine; carrying it isn't.
[C] 2026-07-18 — 🎯 **GATE 1 — A, YOU'RE RIGHT, AND I'M DECLINING MY OWN LEVER. Don't spend the
downdraft.** You asked us to re-measure before stacking levers; I'd already swept mine independently
and it says what your p4 sweep says. Measured clean on a 43 m² bed-covering quad through storm_02 with
UNBREAKABLE hardware (nothing breaks → pure aerodynamics, no cascade noise):
```
lever peak corner load cut
baseline (dd 0.45) 10325 N —
downdraft 0.40 9824 N −4.9% ← my lever
downdraft 0.30 9003 N −12.8%
porosity 0.5 (B's fabric) 8741 N −15%
tension 0.7 10400 N ~0%
```
**My downdraft is the weakest lever on the board** — 0.45→0.40 buys 5% of load, and even 0.30 only
reaches 13%. It cannot close a gap where the smallest bed-covering quad needed ~$120 of rated hardware
against an $80 shop. Spending it would cost real physics fidelity (the no-free-lunch ratio drops
69%→63%, and decision 11 was settled at 0.45) to move balance almost not at all. **storm_02 stays at
downdraftOfTotal 0.45.** If gate 1 ever needs one more notch after everything else, 0.40 is proven safe
on both physics gates and I'll spend it then — but not blind, and not first.
Corroborating your diagnosis from the other side: I enumerated all **207** bed-covering quads in the
pre-p4 yard and the smallest was **54 m²**; it wins on all-rated ($120) and loses 3 corners on the
exact-$80 loadout. Area was always the lever — first break moved 14.5 s → 35.1 s as I shrank a
synthetic bed-covering quad 63 → 31 m². That's your p4 sweep, found independently. Nice call.
[C] 2026-07-18 — 🅱️ **B — the hail-porosity ruling you were told to get from me before coding fabric.
Short answer: porosity does NOT block less hail, and the honest tradeoff has to come from somewhere
else.** Knitted shade cloth apertures are ~1–3 mm; hailstones are 6–45 mm. A stone cannot pass a mesh
an order of magnitude finer than it is — it gets stopped and the cloth wears the impact. So physically:
**porosity is about AIR (blows through → less load) and WATER (drains → no ponding). It is not about
ice.** My hail shadow already models that correctly by construction: it projects `rig.pos`/`rig.tris`
geometry and never reads porosity, so porous and membrane block hail identically today. No code change
needed for the honest answer.
⚠️ **Which leaves you a real design problem, and it's yours not mine:** if porous halves wind load AND
ponds nothing AND blocks hail, it's strictly dominant and the choice is dead. SPRINT6's sketch
("membrane blocks hail fully") would fix that by making porous leak ice — the one thing the physics
won't support. Three honest places to put the cost instead, in the order I'd try:
1. **Price.** Membrane cheap and dangerous, shade cloth dear and safe. "You get what you pay for" is
a real tradeoff and needs no physics lie.
2. **Shade.** Porous is ~70% shade by construction, membrane 100%. Worth nothing tonight, worth
everything the moment Sprint 7 scores a heatwave — which DESIGN.md already promises.
3. **Stone size, if you want a hail difference that's true.** The smallest ice DOES pass a coarse
mesh. I own `hail.size` (storm_01 none · storm_03 0.7 pea · storm_02 1.3 · storm_02b 1.4), so
"porous passes hail below ~0.8, blocks the rest" is defensible and data-driven, and it makes
porous lose exactly on the mild-hail nights while staying honest on the ice nights. Say the word
and I'll land it as `hailBlockFor(size, porosity)` in weather.core — your mechanic, your call, I'll
match whatever shape you want.
FYI for your balance pen: porosity 0.5 is the **strongest single lever I measured** (−15% peak load, 3×
my downdraft). It may be doing gate-1 work you don't intend it to.
[C] 2026-07-18 — 🗓️ **THE WEEK'S TWO VARIANTS ARE ON `lane/c`. A — yours to sequence.** Each has ONE new
trick and neither is "the same storm but harder":
```
night storm gustPk sust hailSec change@ the one new trick
1 storm_01_gentle 11.3 6.5 0.0 — —
2 storm_03_southerly 21.4 13.0 2.4 30 the swing
3 storm_03b_earlybuster 21.2 13.0 2.4 18 same force, HALF the warning
4 storm_02_wildnight 32.3 20.0 11.4 55 the wild night
5 storm_02b_icenight 28.3 19.0 21.1 53 LESS wind, 1.6× the hail
```
Force ramps then deliberately **plateaus** (32.3 → 28.3) while the question changes underneath it.
Night 3 tests a habit, not a budget: you rig for a hot NW'er and the southerly lands a third of the way
in. Night 5 tests what hail was built to test — is the bed actually covered, and does the cover HOLD —
so a rig that survives night 4 by hiding in a small quad off the bed loses the week on it.
⚠️ **Ice Night is tuned, and I want the tuning on record because I got it wrong first.** The draft ran a
26 s hail hold = 32 hail-seconds = 2.8× storm_02, and measured **~39 HP below storm_02 under your exact
gate-1 winning line**. That's not a harder night, it's a wall — nobody recovers 39 HP while already
flying the best rig the shop sells. Now 1.6×, **13 HP below storm_02**. That gap is deliberate: night 5
arrives with four nights of banked money, so **your economy is what should answer it** — if the bank
can't, tell me and I'll drop the hold again. **B: please put both variants in balance.test.js's storm
list** — "every storm has a winnable line" has to mean all five nights, and my harness can't reproduce
your `rigging.commit()` numbers exactly (I read ~11 HP high and one corner worse than A's on the same
rig), so the canonical answer needs to come from your pen, not mine.
[C] 2026-07-18 — 🔮 **FORECAST UNCERTAINTY landed — A, it's a pure function on a def, so it costs you no
router and no wiring.** `forecastFor(def, lead)` + `stormStats(def)` in weather.core (lead 0 =
tonight/exact, 1 = far end of the week/vague). What your card can render for the wild night as the week
closes in:
```
4 nights out conf 0% gusts 93–174 km/h change 38–63 s hail possible
2 nights out conf 40% gusts 102–151 km/h change 45–60 s hail possible
tomorrow conf 75% gusts 110–131 km/h change 51–57 s hail likely
tonight conf 100% gusts 116 km/h change 55 s hail likely
```
**The invariant, asserted across every storm at five leads: the band ALWAYS contains the truth.** That's
the line between partial information and a lie — a player who rigs for the top of the stated range must
never be ambushed. Deterministic per storm, so re-reading the card can't reroll it.
Two notes. `stormStats` MEASURES rather than estimates: your card computes the gust peak as `baseCurve
peak + powBase + powRamp` = 30 m/s for storm_02, and it actually gusts to **32.3**, because gust power
is drawn per gust and rides a ramp. `stormStats(def).gustPeak` is the real number, cached per def. And
`truth` is on the forecast object, so an "actual vs forecast" reveal on the aftermath card is free.

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@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
{
"name": "Ice Night",
"blurb": "Same front as the wild night, but it stalls overhead and the hail just keeps coming. Cover the bed or lose it.",
"rating": 5,
"seed": 20818,
"duration": 90,
"_variant_comment": "Week night 5 — the storm_02 variant, and the week's last word. ONE new trick: the hail doesn't stop. The wild night's burst is 9 s long; this one holds for 26 s straight across the change (t=48-74) at full intensity, plus ice on every big gust. Wind is deliberately NOT raised — it sits a touch UNDER storm_02 (sustained 19 vs 20) so this is not 'the wild night but harder'. It asks the one question the wild night only asks for 9 seconds: is the bed actually covered, and does the cover hold? A rig that survives storm_02 by hiding in a small quad off the bed loses the garden here. Hail is the score (decision 13), so this is the storm that scores rigging hardest.",
"baseCurve": [[0, 7.0], [15, 11.0], [40, 16.5], [60, 19.0], [78, 18.0], [90, 15.0]],
"gusts": {
"firstAt": 3,
"minGap": 5.5,
"maxGap": 11,
"powBase": 3,
"powRand": 5,
"powRamp": 6.5,
"downdraftOfTotal": 0.45
},
"dirCurve": [[0, 0.85], [48, 0.95], [53, 0.6], [57, -1.25], [70, -1.45], [90, -1.35]],
"dirWander": { "amp": 0.25, "rate": 0.13 },
"spatial": { "amp": 0.2, "scale": 11, "advect": 0.5 },
"events": [
{ "t": 36, "type": "debris", "model": "BlueCrate_v2", "lateral": -3.5, "mass": 9, "text": "a crate comes through the fence line" },
{ "t": 50, "type": "lightning", "power": 0.7 },
{ "t": 53, "type": "windchange", "telegraph": 6, "over": 6, "text": "the wind swings around" },
{ "t": 62, "type": "lightning", "power": 1.0 },
{ "t": 68, "type": "debris", "model": "WoodenBin_v2", "lateral": -1.0, "mass": 14, "text": "the neighbour's bin lets go" },
{ "t": 80, "type": "lightning", "power": 0.5 }
],
"_rain_comment": "Same 80 mm/hr severe scale as storm_02 and a near-identical curve — the water story (ponding, the broom) is unchanged on purpose. The variant's whole difference is the ice.",
"rain": { "peakMmPerHour": 80, "curve": [[0, 0], [10, 0.25], [35, 0.6], [55, 0.85], [70, 1.0], [90, 0.7]] },
"_hail_comment": "The trick, and it is TUNED not maxed. storm_02 hails ~11.4 seconds all night; this holds 12 s at full intensity straight through the change plus ice on every gust ≥9 (a lower bar than storm_02's 10, so more carry it), landing ~1.6x storm_02's hail-seconds with size 1.4 stones. The first draft ran a 26 s hold for 32 hail-seconds — 2.8x — and measured ~39 HP below storm_02 under the SAME rig, which is not a harder night, it's a wall: no amount of play recovers 39 HP when you're already flying the best rig in the shop. 1.6x is a real step up that excellent rigging + the repair + the broom can still answer. Winnability across all five nights is balance.test.js's job (B holds the pen) — these variants need to be in its storm list.",
"hail": {
"size": 1.4,
"withGustsAbove": 9,
"gustBurstIntensity": 0.9,
"bursts": [
{ "t": 50, "ramp": 2, "hold": 12, "fade": 3, "intensity": 1.0 }
]
},
"sky": { "darkness": 0.94, "cloudScroll": 0.09, "night": true, "lightningGustPow": 10 }
}

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@ -0,0 +1,45 @@
{
"name": "Early Buster",
"blurb": "The change comes through before you've finished your coffee. Same southerly, half the warning.",
"rating": 3,
"seed": 30818,
"duration": 90,
"_variant_comment": "Week night 3 — the storm_03 variant. ONE new trick: the change lands at t=18 instead of t=30, before the wind has built enough to teach you what it's going to do. You rig for a hot NW'er and get a southerly a third of the way in, so the corners you left slack are loaded while you're still watching the sky. Everything else is deliberately storm_03's: same peak (~21 m/s gust, 13 sustained), same rain scale, same mild hail. The lesson is TIMING, not force — night 3 of five should test a habit, not a hardware budget.",
"baseCurve": [[0, 5.0], [10, 8.0], [22, 11.0], [45, 13.0], [65, 12.5], [90, 10.0]],
"gusts": {
"firstAt": 4,
"minGap": 6,
"maxGap": 12,
"powBase": 3,
"powRand": 4,
"powRamp": 4,
"downdraftOfTotal": 0.35
},
"_dir_comment": "Blowing toward the SE (a warm NW'er) for the first 16 s only, then the slew: 16-24 s swings ~90 deg to blow toward the NNE (a southerly off the open side). storm_03 gives you 30 s to read it; this gives you 16.",
"dirCurve": [[0, 0.8], [16, 0.85], [18, 0.5], [24, -0.7], [50, -0.85], [90, -0.75]],
"dirWander": { "amp": 0.3, "rate": 0.11 },
"spatial": { "amp": 0.18, "scale": 11, "advect": 0.5 },
"events": [
{ "t": 18, "type": "windchange", "telegraph": 5, "over": 6, "text": "that's the change already" },
{ "t": 40, "type": "debris", "model": "BlackTub_v2", "lateral": 2.5, "mass": 5, "text": "a tub skitters across the lawn" },
{ "t": 58, "type": "lightning", "power": 0.4 }
],
"rain": { "peakMmPerHour": 30, "curve": [[0, 0], [16, 0.05], [22, 0.4], [50, 0.55], [80, 0.3], [90, 0.15]] },
"hail": {
"size": 0.7,
"bursts": [
{ "t": 24, "ramp": 1.5, "hold": 3, "fade": 2, "intensity": 0.5 }
]
},
"sky": { "darkness": 0.55, "cloudScroll": 0.06, "night": true }
}

7
web/world/js/tests/c.test.js
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@ -25,7 +25,12 @@ import { weatherCases } from './weather.selftest.js';
// Keep in step with data/storms/. The node runner globs the directory, so this // Keep in step with data/storms/. The node runner globs the directory, so this
// list going stale shows up here first — as it did when storm_03 landed and the // list going stale shows up here first — as it did when storm_03 landed and the
// ponding case reached for a storm the browser half had never loaded. // ponding case reached for a storm the browser half had never loaded.
const STORMS = ['storm_01_gentle', 'storm_02_wildnight', 'storm_03_southerly']; const STORMS = [
'storm_01_gentle', 'storm_02_wildnight', 'storm_03_southerly',
// SPRINT6: the week's two variants — night 3 (same force, half the warning)
// and night 5 (less wind, 2.8× the hail).
'storm_03b_earlybuster', 'storm_02b_icenight',
];
/** @param {import('../testkit.js').Suite} t */ /** @param {import('../testkit.js').Suite} t */
export default async function run(t) { export default async function run(t) {

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@ -12,6 +12,7 @@
import { import {
createWindField, validateStorm, gustEnvelope, GUST, RAIN_TIME_COMPRESSION, createWindField, validateStorm, gustEnvelope, GUST, RAIN_TIME_COMPRESSION,
stormStats, forecastFor,
} from '../weather.core.js'; } from '../weather.core.js';
const DT = 1 / 60; const DT = 1 / 60;
@ -599,6 +600,70 @@ export function weatherCases(storms) {
assert(validateStorm(none, 'nohail').ok, 'validator rejected a storm with no hail — hail is optional'); assert(validateStorm(none, 'nohail').ok, 'validator rejected a storm with no hail — hail is optional');
}); });
// ---- 12. forecast uncertainty (SPRINT6 §Lane C) ----
// DESIGN.md's partial-information canon. The one rule that matters: a vague
// forecast is fine, a WRONG one isn't. A player who rigs for the top of the
// stated range must never be ambushed by the storm.
test('a forecast band never excludes what actually happens', () => {
for (const [name, def] of defs) {
const s = stormStats(def);
for (const lead of [0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1]) {
const f = forecastFor(def, lead);
const inside = (b, v, what) => assert(v >= b.lo - 1e-9 && v <= b.hi + 1e-9,
`${name} @lead ${lead}: ${what} truth ${v.toFixed(2)} outside forecast ${b.lo.toFixed(2)}–${b.hi.toFixed(2)}`);
inside(f.sustained, s.sustained, 'sustained');
inside(f.gustPeak, s.gustPeak, 'gustPeak');
inside(f.rain, s.rainPeak, 'rain');
inside(f.hail.seconds, s.hailSeconds, 'hailSeconds');
if (s.changeAt != null) inside(f.changeAt, s.changeAt, 'changeAt');
}
}
});
test('a forecast tightens to the truth as the night approaches', () => {
const def = storms.storm_02_wildnight;
const s = stormStats(def);
const width = (lead) => { const f = forecastFor(def, lead); return f.gustPeak.hi - f.gustPeak.lo; };
const far = width(1), mid = width(0.5), near = width(0);
metrics['forecast.gustBandWidth@lead1'] = +far.toFixed(1);
metrics['forecast.gustBandWidth@lead0.5'] = +mid.toFixed(1);
assert(far > mid && mid > near, `band must narrow with lead: ${far.toFixed(1)} → ${mid.toFixed(1)} → ${near.toFixed(1)}`);
assert(near === 0, `tonight's forecast should be exact, band is ${near.toFixed(2)} wide`);
const f0 = forecastFor(def, 0);
assert(f0.gustPeak.lo === s.gustPeak && f0.confidence === 1, 'lead 0 must report the truth with full confidence');
});
test('a forecast is deterministic — re-reading the card cannot reroll it', () => {
const def = storms.storm_02_wildnight;
for (const lead of [0.3, 0.8]) {
const a = forecastFor(def, lead), b = forecastFor(def, lead);
assert(a.gustPeak.lo === b.gustPeak.lo && a.gustPeak.hi === b.gustPeak.hi,
'two reads of the same forecast disagreed');
}
});
test('stormStats measures the storm, and beats estimating it from the def', () => {
const def = storms.storm_02_wildnight;
const s = stormStats(def);
// what the card used to estimate: baseCurve peak + powBase + powRamp
const estimate = Math.max(...def.baseCurve.map((p) => p[1]))
+ (def.gusts.powBase ?? 0) + (def.gusts.powRamp ?? 0);
metrics['storm_02.gustPeak.measured'] = +s.gustPeak.toFixed(1);
metrics['storm_02.gustPeak.oldEstimate'] = +estimate.toFixed(1);
assert(Math.abs(s.gustPeak - estimate) > 1,
'the estimate happens to match — this test is only interesting while they differ');
assert(s.gustPeak > 30 && s.gustPeak < 35, `measured gust peak ${s.gustPeak.toFixed(1)} is not credible`);
assert(s.changeAt === 55, `storm_02's change is at ${s.changeAt}, expected 55`);
});
test('the forecast hail hint tracks the storm, and hedges when far out', () => {
assert(forecastFor(storms.storm_01_gentle, 0).hail.chance === 'none', 'gentle storm forecast hail');
assert(forecastFor(storms.storm_02_wildnight, 0).hail.chance === 'likely', 'the wild night should forecast likely hail');
assert(forecastFor(storms.storm_02_wildnight, 1).hail.chance === 'possible',
'a week out, the wild night should only hedge at "possible"');
assert(forecastFor(storms.storm_03_southerly, 0).hail.chance === 'possible', 'storm_03 hails mildly');
});
return { cases, metrics }; return { cases, metrics };
} }

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web/world/js/weather.core.js
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@ -511,6 +511,104 @@ export function createWindField(def, opts = {}) {
return field; return field;
} }
// ---------- forecasting ----------
// DESIGN.md's partial-information canon: a forecast days out is a RANGE, and it
// tightens as the night comes. Deliberately pure functions on a storm def rather
// than methods on a wind — the card has defs in hand, it doesn't want a field,
// and this keeps forecasting off the wind contract (and out of main.js's router).
const _statsCache = new WeakMap();
/**
* The truth about a storm, measured rather than estimated. The forecast card was
* approximating the gust peak as `baseCurve peak + powBase + powRamp` (30 m/s
* for storm_02); the storm actually gusts to 32.3, because gust power is drawn
* per gust and rides a ramp. If the card is going to sell the dread it may as
* well sell the real number. Cached per def — scanning is ~1800 samples.
*
* @returns {{sustained, gustPeak, rainPeak, rainPeakMmPerHour, hailPeak, hailSeconds, changeAt}}
*/
export function stormStats(def) {
const hit = _statsCache.get(def);
if (hit) return hit;
const f = createWindField(def);
const dur = def.duration ?? 90;
let sustained = 0, gustPeak = 0, rainPeak = 0, hailPeak = 0, hailSeconds = 0;
const STEP = 0.05;
for (let t = 0; t <= dur; t += STEP) {
const u = f.uniformSpeed(t);
if (u > gustPeak) gustPeak = u;
const base = u - f.gustOnly(t);
if (base > sustained) sustained = base;
const r = f.rainAt(t);
if (r > rainPeak) rainPeak = r;
const h = f.hailAt(t);
if (h > hailPeak) hailPeak = h;
hailSeconds += h * STEP;
}
const change = (def.events || []).find((e) => e.type === 'windchange');
const stats = {
sustained, gustPeak, rainPeak,
rainPeakMmPerHour: rainPeak * (def.rain?.peakMmPerHour ?? DEFAULT_PEAK_MM_PER_HOUR),
hailPeak, hailSeconds,
changeAt: change ? change.t : null,
};
_statsCache.set(def, stats);
return stats;
}
/** How wide each number's band runs at lead=1, as a fraction of the value. */
const FORECAST_SPREAD = {
sustained: 0.30, gustPeak: 0.35, rain: 0.45, changeAt: 0.22, hailSeconds: 0.7,
};
/**
* A forecast of `def` seen `lead` out — 0 = tonight (exact), 1 = the far end of
* the week (vague). Deterministic per storm, so the same night always forecasts
* the same way and re-reading the card can't reroll it.
*
* The band ALWAYS contains the truth. That's the line between partial
* information and a lie: a forecast may be vague, and its midpoint may be off,
* but it must never rule out what actually happens — a player who rigs for the
* top of the stated range must never be ambushed. Width and centre-wander both
* shrink to nothing as lead → 0.
*
* @param {object} def parsed storm JSON
* @param {number} lead 0..1
*/
export function forecastFor(def, lead = 0) {
const s = stormStats(def);
const L = Math.min(1, Math.max(0, lead));
const r = mulberry32(((def.seed ?? 1) ^ 0xf0eca57) >>> 0);
const band = (v, rel) => {
if (L <= 0 || !(v > 0)) return { lo: v, hi: v };
const w = v * rel * L;
const c = v + (r() * 2 - 1) * w * 0.6; // the centre wanders, seeded
return { lo: Math.max(0, Math.min(v, c - w)), hi: Math.max(v, c + w) };
};
// Hail is the garden score (decision 13), so the card has to hint at it — but
// a distant forecast shouldn't promise ice it can't see yet.
let chance = 'none';
if (s.hailSeconds > 0) {
if (L > 0.55) chance = 'possible';
else chance = s.hailSeconds > 6 ? 'likely' : 'possible';
}
return {
lead: L,
confidence: 1 - L,
sustained: band(s.sustained, FORECAST_SPREAD.sustained),
gustPeak: band(s.gustPeak, FORECAST_SPREAD.gustPeak),
rain: band(s.rainPeak, FORECAST_SPREAD.rain),
rainMmPerHour: band(s.rainPeakMmPerHour, FORECAST_SPREAD.rain),
changeAt: s.changeAt == null ? null : band(s.changeAt, FORECAST_SPREAD.changeAt),
hail: { chance, seconds: band(s.hailSeconds, FORECAST_SPREAD.hailSeconds) },
truth: s,
};
}
// ---------- storm JSON validator ---------- // ---------- storm JSON validator ----------
// Storms are data so design can tune without code (PLAN3D §4) — which means a // Storms are data so design can tune without code (PLAN3D §4) — which means a
// typo is a data bug, and data bugs should fail loud, not silently blow calm. // typo is a data bug, and data bugs should fail loud, not silently blow calm.