Variants for A's five-night week. Each gets ONE new trick, and neither is
"the same storm but harder":
- storm_03b_earlybuster (night 3): same force as storm_03 (21 m/s gust, 13
sustained) but the change lands at t=18 instead of t=30. You rig for a hot
NW'er and get a southerly a third of the way in. Tests timing, not budget.
- storm_02b_icenight (night 5): LESS wind than the wild night (28 vs 32 gust,
19 vs 20 sustained) and 2.8× the hail — 32 hail-seconds vs 11.4, held 26 s
straight across the change, size 1.4 stones, ice on every gust ≥9. Hail is
the score (decision 13), so this asks the one question storm_02 only asks
for nine seconds: is the bed actually covered, and does the cover hold? A rig
that survives storm_02 by hiding in a small quad off the bed loses here.
Week escalation now reads 11.3 / 21.4 / 21.2 / 32.3 / 28.3 m/s peak gust with
0 / 2.4 / 2.4 / 11.4 / 32.0 hail-seconds — force ramps then plateaus while the
question changes underneath it.
Forecast uncertainty (DESIGN.md partial-information canon): `forecastFor(def,
lead)` + `stormStats(def)`, pure functions on a def rather than methods on the
wind — the card holds defs, doesn't want a field, and this keeps forecasting
off the wind contract and out of A's router. Bands widen with lead and resolve
to the exact truth at lead 0; deterministic per storm, so re-reading the card
can't reroll it.
The invariant, asserted across every storm at five leads: a band ALWAYS
contains the truth. That's the line between partial information and a lie — a
player who rigs for the top of the stated range must never be ambushed.
stormStats also measures what the card was estimating: storm_02 gusts to 32.3
m/s, not the 30 that `baseCurve peak + powBase + powRamp` implied.
Selftest 253/0/0; node 49/0/0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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