Lane C S16: storm_06_soaker — the pea-hail soaker, measured over both yards; fabric_bet probe; gardenfly porosity opt
The first night the default fabric is the wrong answer, tuned by measurement through the real chain (gardenfly, dressed anchors, funnel ON, post-ruling tree): bare 17.5 DEAD, best cloth line 42.3 TATTERED (a loss at any price), same $75 ring on membrane 96.5 FULL, $60 ring 68.8 FULL — one key, Δ54.2 HP. Membrane on $20 carabiners inverts (19.1 < 24.5): the doubled load is real. Measured over backyard_01 too: its geometry caps hail cover at ~31%, so the night only works on site_02 — the pairing receipt for D. tools/fabric_bet/ probe.html is the measurement harness; flyGarden grows an additive porosity opt (default 0.30 unchanged — B: contest at integration if wanted).
This commit is contained in:
type-two
parent
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tools/fabric_bet/probe.html
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172
tools/fabric_bet/probe.html
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<!doctype html>
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<!--
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fabric_bet/probe.html — does the F key matter TONIGHT? [Lane C, SPRINT16 gate 3.1]
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The measurement harness behind the pea-hail soaker. Every hail night before
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storm_06 threw stones a 2 mm weave stops dead, so the fabric bet (SPRINT6)
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never had a night where membrane was the right answer. This page flies the
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SAME line on both fabrics through gardenfly.js — THE audit scoring chain
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(windForSite → attach → skyfx → garden.js), dressed anchors, live sway — so
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cloth-vs-membrane differ by exactly one variable: porosity.
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Per line, per fabric: garden hp/state, byHail/byRain, corner peaks vs
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effective ratings, marginal flags, cost. Plus the bare bed (the control) and
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the storm's measured personality (stormStats — the numbers the forecast
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card will sell).
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Funnel state is printed in the header, per the discipline (three harnesses
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in this repo's history flew site_02 funnel-off and believed it).
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tools/fabric_bet/probe.html?site=backyard_01&storm=storm_06_soaker
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-->
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<meta charset="utf-8">
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<title>fabric_bet probe</title>
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<style>
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body { background:#111; color:#ddd; font:13px/1.5 ui-monospace,Menlo,monospace; margin:0; padding:20px; }
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h1 { font-size:15px; color:#fff; margin:0 0 2px; }
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.sub { color:#888; margin-bottom:14px; white-space:pre-wrap; }
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table { border-collapse:collapse; margin:8px 0; }
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td, th { padding:2px 12px 2px 0; white-space:nowrap; text-align:left; }
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th { color:#9ab; border-bottom:1px solid #333; }
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.ok { color:#6c6; } .bad { color:#e66; } .warn { color:#dc6; }
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.note { color:#888; margin-top:14px; white-space:pre-wrap; }
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</style>
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<h1>fabric_bet — the same line, both fabrics, the real chain</h1>
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<div class="sub" id="sub">loading…</div>
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<div id="out"></div>
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<div class="note" id="note"></div>
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<script type="importmap">
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{ "imports": {
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"three": "../../web/world/vendor/three.module.js",
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"three/addons/": "../../web/world/vendor/addons/"
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} }
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</script>
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<script type="module">
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import * as THREE from '../../web/world/vendor/three.module.js';
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import { createWorld, loadSite } from '../../web/world/js/world.js';
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import { stormStats } from '../../web/world/js/weather.js';
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import { hailBlockFor } from '../../web/world/js/weather.core.js';
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import { flyGarden, hardwareByName } from '../site_audit/gardenfly.js';
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const q = new URLSearchParams(location.search);
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const siteName = q.get('site') || 'backyard_01';
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const stormName = q.get('storm') || 'storm_06_soaker';
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const el = (id) => document.getElementById(id);
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const loadJSON = async (p) => (await fetch(p)).json();
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// The candidate lines. COVER_QUAD is balance.test's canonical bed-covering
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// quad; the others are cheaper/worse-covering controls so the bet's shape is
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// visible across the price range, not just at one point.
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const LINES = {
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backyard_01: [
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{ label: 'cover quad, all carabiners ($20)', ids: ['p1', 'p2', 'p3', 'p4'], hw: ['carabiner', 'carabiner', 'carabiner', 'carabiner'] },
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{ label: 'cover quad, all shackles ($60)', ids: ['p1', 'p2', 'p3', 'p4'], hw: ['shackle', 'shackle', 'shackle', 'shackle'] },
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{ label: 'wildnight $80 line (cara+rated+shackle+rated)', ids: ['p1', 'p2', 'p3', 'p4'], hw: ['carabiner', 'rated shackle', 'shackle', 'rated shackle'] },
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{ label: 'separation-pin line p5+p1+p2+p3 ($75)', ids: ['p5', 'p1', 'p2', 'p3'], hw: ['rated shackle', 'shackle', 'shackle', 'shackle'] },
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// The full-cover quads — unbuyable on the wildnight (6.9 kN, tears), which
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// is exactly why the MILD night is where they come alive. p4+p5 span the
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// bed north, p1+p2 south; the hull holds the whole bed.
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{ label: 'FULL-COVER p4,p5,p1,p2 carabiners ($20)', ids: ['p4', 'p5', 'p1', 'p2'], hw: ['carabiner', 'carabiner', 'carabiner', 'carabiner'] },
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{ label: 'FULL-COVER p4,p5,p1,p2 shackles ($60)', ids: ['p4', 'p5', 'p1', 'p2'], hw: ['shackle', 'shackle', 'shackle', 'shackle'] },
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{ label: 'wide tree line t1,t2,p1,p2 shackles ($60)', ids: ['t1', 't2', 'p1', 'p2'], hw: ['shackle', 'shackle', 'shackle', 'shackle'] },
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{ label: 'house span h2,h3,p1,p2 shackles ($60)', ids: ['h2', 'h3', 'p1', 'p2'], hw: ['shackle', 'shackle', 'shackle', 'shackle'] },
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],
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site_02_corner_block: [
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{ label: 'S14 cheapest honest tr1,tr1b,q1,q3 ($40)', ids: ['tr1', 'tr1b', 'q1', 'q3'], hw: ['carabiner', 'carabiner', 'shackle', 'carabiner'] },
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{ label: 'best clean tr1,tr1b,q1,q4 (shackles $60)', ids: ['tr1', 'tr1b', 'q1', 'q4'], hw: ['shackle', 'shackle', 'shackle', 'shackle'] },
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// The bed ring — q1..q4 stand AROUND the bed, the yard's whole offer.
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{ label: 'bed ring q1,q2,q3,q4 carabiners ($20)', ids: ['q1', 'q2', 'q3', 'q4'], hw: ['carabiner', 'carabiner', 'carabiner', 'carabiner'] },
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{ label: 'bed ring q1,q2,q3,q4 shackles ($60)', ids: ['q1', 'q2', 'q3', 'q4'], hw: ['shackle', 'shackle', 'shackle', 'shackle'] },
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{ label: 'bed ring, rated on the funnel corner q1 ($75)', ids: ['q1', 'q2', 'q3', 'q4'], hw: ['rated shackle', 'shackle', 'shackle', 'shackle'] },
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{ label: 'bed ring $75, winched tight (tension 1.2)', ids: ['q1', 'q2', 'q3', 'q4'], hw: ['rated shackle', 'shackle', 'shackle', 'shackle'], tension: 1.2 },
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{ label: 'bed ring $60, winched tight (tension 1.2)', ids: ['q1', 'q2', 'q3', 'q4'], hw: ['shackle', 'shackle', 'shackle', 'shackle'], tension: 1.2 },
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],
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};
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async function run() {
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const site = await loadSite(siteName);
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const scene = new THREE.Scene();
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let currentWind = {
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sample: (p, t, o) => (o || new THREE.Vector3()).set(0, 0, 4),
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speedAt: () => 4, rainAt: () => 0, rainMmPerHour: () => 0,
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gustTelegraph: () => null, eventsBetween: () => [],
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};
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const windProxy = {
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sample: (p, t, o) => currentWind.sample(p, t, o || new THREE.Vector3()),
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speedAt: (p, t) => currentWind.speedAt(p, t),
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rainAt: (t) => currentWind.rainAt(t),
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rainMmPerHour: (t) => (currentWind.rainMmPerHour ? currentWind.rainMmPerHour(t) : 0),
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gustTelegraph: (t) => currentWind.gustTelegraph(t),
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eventsBetween: (a, b) => currentWind.eventsBetween(a, b),
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setSheltersFromTrees() {},
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};
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const use = (w) => { currentWind = w; };
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const world = createWorld(scene, { wind: windProxy, site });
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await world.dress();
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const bed = world.gardenBed;
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const anchors = world.anchors;
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const venturi = site.wind?.venturi ?? [];
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const stormDef = await loadJSON(`../../web/world/data/storms/${stormName}.json`);
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const s = stormStats(stormDef);
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const size = stormDef.hail?.size ?? 0;
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const clothBlock = size ? hailBlockFor(size, 0.30) : 1;
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el('sub').textContent =
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`${site.name} · ${stormName} (${stormDef.duration}s) · bed ${bed.w}x${bed.d} @ (${bed.x},${bed.z})\n`
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+ `FUNNEL: ${venturi.length ? venturi.map((v) => `(${v.x},${v.z}) gain ${v.gain} — ON`).join(' · ') : 'none authored on this site'}\n`
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+ `storm truth (stormStats): sustained ${s.sustained.toFixed(1)} m/s · gust peak ${s.gustPeak.toFixed(1)} m/s `
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+ `(${(s.gustPeak * 3.6).toFixed(0)} km/h) · rain peak ${s.rainPeakMmPerHour.toFixed(0)} mm/hr · `
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+ `hail ${s.hailSeconds.toFixed(1)} s-equiv @ size ${size} · change at ${s.changeAt ?? '—'}s\n`
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+ `hailBlockFor(${size}, cloth 0.30) = ${(clothBlock * 100).toFixed(1)}% blocked · membrane = 100%`;
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const bare = flyGarden({ anchors, bed, stormDef, siteDef: site, use });
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const tbl = document.createElement('table');
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const head = tbl.insertRow();
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for (const h of ['line', 'fabric', '$', 'garden', 'byHail', 'byRain', 'lost', 'marginal', 'peaks (kN vs eff)'])
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{ const th = document.createElement('th'); th.textContent = h; head.appendChild(th); }
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const rowFor = (label, g, fabric, cls) => {
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const tr = tbl.insertRow();
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const peaks = g.peaks.map((p) => `${p.id} ${(p.peakN / 1000).toFixed(2)}/${(p.effN / 1000).toFixed(2)}`).join(' ');
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[label, fabric, `$${g.cost}`, `${g.hp.toFixed(1)} ${g.state.toUpperCase()}`,
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g.byHail.toFixed(1), g.byRain.toFixed(1), String(g.cornersLost),
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g.marginal.join(',') || '—', peaks || '—']
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.forEach((c, i) => { const td = tr.insertCell(); td.textContent = c; if (i === 3) td.className = cls(g); });
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};
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const cls = (g) => (g.hp >= 66 ? 'ok' : g.hp >= 50 ? 'warn' : 'bad');
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const results = { site: siteName, storm: stormName, bare, lines: [] };
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for (const L of LINES[siteName] ?? []) {
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const hw = L.hw.map(hardwareByName);
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const tension = L.tension ?? 1.0;
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const cloth = flyGarden({ anchors, bed, stormDef, siteDef: site, use, ids: L.ids, hw, tension, porosity: 0.30 });
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const mem = flyGarden({ anchors, bed, stormDef, siteDef: site, use, ids: L.ids, hw, tension, porosity: 0 });
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rowFor(L.label, cloth, 'cloth', cls);
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rowFor('', mem, 'MEMBRANE', cls);
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results.lines.push({ label: L.label, ids: L.ids, hw: L.hw, cloth, membrane: mem });
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}
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const tr = tbl.insertRow();
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['BARE BED', '—', '$0', `${bare.hp.toFixed(1)} ${bare.state.toUpperCase()}`,
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bare.byHail.toFixed(1), bare.byRain.toFixed(1), '4', '—', '—']
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.forEach((c) => { const td = tr.insertCell(); td.textContent = c; td.className = 'warn'; });
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el('out').appendChild(tbl);
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const best = results.lines.reduce((b, r) => (r.membrane.hp > (b?.membrane.hp ?? -1) ? r : b), null);
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el('note').textContent = best
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? `best membrane line: "${best.label}" → ${best.membrane.hp.toFixed(1)} vs same line on cloth ${best.cloth.hp.toFixed(1)} `
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+ `(Δ ${(best.membrane.hp - best.cloth.hp).toFixed(1)} HP) · bare ${bare.hp.toFixed(1)}`
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: 'no lines authored for this site — add them to LINES';
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window.__fabricBet = results;
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document.title = `fabric_bet — ${stormName}`;
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}
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run().catch((e) => {
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el('note').className = 'bad';
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el('note').textContent = `probe crashed: ${e.message}\n${e.stack || ''}`;
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window.__fabricBet = { error: e.message };
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document.title = 'fabric_bet — ERROR';
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});
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</script>
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@ -89,9 +89,17 @@ export function hardwareByName(name) {
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* @param {Array} [o.ids] 4 anchor ids; null/omitted = bare bed (the control)
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* @param {Array|object} [o.hw] hardware per pick (aligned with ids), or one tier for all 4
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* @param {number} [o.tension]
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* @param {number} [o.porosity] fabric: 0.30 = shade cloth (the default every
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* audit number to date was flown on — unchanged),
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* 0 = membrane. SPRINT16 gate 3.1 measures the
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* fabric bet through THIS chain, same driver as
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* every other garden number, so cloth-vs-membrane
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* differ by exactly one variable. [Lane C addition,
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* THREADS 2026-07-20 — B: contest at integration if
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* you want a different door.]
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* @returns {{ hp, state, byHail, byRain, cornersLost, peaks, marginal, cost }}
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*/
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export function flyGarden({ anchors, bed, stormDef, siteDef = null, use = null, ids = null, hw = null, tension = 1.0 }) {
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export function flyGarden({ anchors, bed, stormDef, siteDef = null, use = null, ids = null, hw = null, tension = 1.0, porosity = 0.30 }) {
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const wind = windForSite(stormDef, siteDef, anchors);
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use?.(wind);
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@ -99,8 +107,9 @@ export function flyGarden({ anchors, bed, stormDef, siteDef = null, use = null,
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if (ids) {
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const hwArr = Array.isArray(hw) ? hw : Array(4).fill(hw ?? hardwareByName('rated shackle'));
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cost = hwArr.reduce((s, h) => s + (h.cost || 0), 0);
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// shade cloth (porosity 0.30): the fabric a competent player flies — same as sweep.js
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rig = new SailRig({ anchors, gridN: 10, porosity: 0.30 }).attach(ids, hwArr, tension);
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// shade cloth (porosity 0.30) unless the caller is measuring the fabric
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// bet — same default as sweep.js, so nothing pre-SPRINT16 moves.
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rig = new SailRig({ anchors, gridN: 10, porosity }).attach(ids, hwArr, tension);
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// D's skipped-attach trap: a rig without its shadow mesh scores as a bare
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// bed and the number LOOKS plausible. Refuse to fly it.
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if (!rig.rigged || !rig.pos || !rig.tris || !rig.tris.length) {
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52
web/world/data/storms/storm_06_soaker.json
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web/world/data/storms/storm_06_soaker.json
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{
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"name": "Pea-Hail Soaker",
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"blurb": "Warm, wet, and rattling — fine hail on and off all night under steady soaking rain. The wind never gets serious. The stones are small enough to matter.",
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"rating": 3,
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"seed": 61207,
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"duration": 90,
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"_why_comment": "SPRINT16 gate 3.1 — the first night the DEFAULT fabric is the wrong answer. Every prior hail night throws stones a 2 mm weave stops dead (storm_02 size 1.3, icenight 1.4 — cloth blocks 100%), so the F key never mattered. This storm's stones are size 0.45: UNDER the cloth aperture band (0.3..0.9 at porosity 0.30), so shade cloth blocks only 15.6% and leaks the rest onto the bed ALL NIGHT; membrane blocks everything. Wind is deliberately mild (sustained 9.2, gusts 15.2 m/s measured) so membrane's higher pressure load is affordable — the night's question is the fabric, per the one-variable rule. MEASURED on site_02 through gardenfly (fabric_bet probe, funnel ON, post-ruling tree, 2026-07-20): bare 17.5 DEAD · best cloth line at any price 42.3 TATTERED (a LOSS — 7.7 under the win line) · the SAME $75 ring on membrane 96.5 FULL · the $60 ring on membrane 68.8 FULL. Same line, one key, Δ54.2 HP. And membrane is NOT a free win: on $20 carabiners it reads 19.1 vs cloth's 24.5 — the doubled load tears cheap steel; bring shackles. This night was measured over BOTH shipped yards and it only works on the corner block: backyard_01's buyable geometry caps hail cover at ~31% (its full-cover quads pond-tear at 3.3+ kN even in this mild wind), so membrane cannot save what the sail cannot reach — the debut yard is site_02, and the pairing note is in THREADS for D.",
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"baseCurve": [[0, 5.0], [15, 6.8], [30, 8.2], [50, 9.2], [70, 8.8], [90, 7.3]],
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"gusts": {
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"firstAt": 4,
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"minGap": 6,
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"maxGap": 11,
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"powBase": 2.0,
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"powRand": 3.0,
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"powRamp": 2.0,
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"downdraftOfTotal": 0.3
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},
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"_dir_comment": "A soft change at t=40 — later and gentler than the busters, swinging ~75 deg over 8 s. It keeps the series' one honest tell (the front wall rises in the quarter the new wind comes from) and it re-aims the yard: post-change the wind aligns with site_02's funnel axis, so q1 becomes the hot western corner (4.2 kN on cloth — the rated shackle's slot) while the pond load walks to the new downwind corner q2 (3.2-3.4 kN — the broom's slot). Two hot corners, one rated shackle in the budget: that is the night's rigging question once the F key is answered.",
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"dirCurve": [[0, 0.6], [36, 0.7], [40, 0.4], [48, -0.6], [70, -0.7], [90, -0.65]],
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"dirWander": { "amp": 0.2, "rate": 0.1 },
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"spatial": { "amp": 0.18, "scale": 11, "advect": 0.5 },
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"events": [
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{ "t": 40, "type": "windchange", "telegraph": 6, "over": 8, "text": "the rain squares around" },
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{ "t": 56, "type": "debris", "model": "BlackTub_v2", "lateral": 2.0, "mass": 4, "text": "a tub floats off the path" },
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{ "t": 66, "type": "lightning", "power": 0.4 }
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],
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"_rain_comment": "peakMmPerHour 44 and it rains from the first minute to the last — mean intensity ~0.75, so at decision 10's 40x the night delivers ~3 cm on a flat catch: enough that the bed ring (four 4.0 m posts, near-flat) ponds toward a real corner load on EITHER fabric (ponding reads geometry, not porosity — see THREADS), and the broom stays a tool. First drafts ran 55 then 48: at 55 the pond alone tore the $60 membrane ring's corners and the fabric lesson drowned in a rain lesson — 44 keeps exactly one pond-hot corner on the winning line.",
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"rain": { "peakMmPerHour": 44, "curve": [[0, 0.15], [10, 0.45], [25, 0.75], [40, 0.9], [60, 1.0], [80, 0.85], [90, 0.7]] },
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"_hail_comment": "size 0.45 = true pea hail, the storm's entire thesis (see _why_comment). Four authored bursts spread t=16..79 so the leak is 'all night', not a moment — and NO gust-synced hail on purpose: the stones arrive on the RAIN's schedule, not the wind's, which keeps the mild wind honest and the forecast legible. Weighted hail-seconds 14.9 measured — between the southerly's ~2 and the icenight's ~18 — and TUNED not maxed (the icenight's own lesson): first draft ran 17.2 and read bare 7.2 / best-cloth 33, a wall wearing a bet's clothes; at 14.9 the best cloth line loses by a clear 7.7 HP and the membrane ring wins FULL, which is the storm doing exactly one thing.",
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"hail": {
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"size": 0.45,
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"bursts": [
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{ "t": 16, "ramp": 2, "hold": 5, "fade": 3, "intensity": 0.35 },
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{ "t": 33, "ramp": 2, "hold": 6, "fade": 3, "intensity": 0.43 },
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{ "t": 49, "ramp": 2, "hold": 8, "fade": 3, "intensity": 0.52 },
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{ "t": 70, "ramp": 2, "hold": 5, "fade": 4, "intensity": 0.39 }
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]
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},
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"sky": { "darkness": 0.85, "cloudScroll": 0.07, "night": true }
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}
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||||
Loading…
Reference in New Issue
Block a user