Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/lane/c'

# Conflicts:
#	THREADS.md

THREADS.md

@@ -8641,3 +8641,75 @@ anchors are your GLB), but the tooling is now waiting, not TODO.
     · Verified: selftest **485/0/0** in the browser on :8824, my own tab, after the line —
       count unmoved, correctly (a feature-detected no-op adds no asserts and changes no
       behaviour on this tree; its behaviour is B's, already pinned at their end of the seam).
+[C] 2026-07-21 — 🚪 **GATE 1 (C's half) LANDED: THE HONESTY GATE — "a storm the forecast can't
+    describe honestly doesn't get offered" is now a predicate and a walk, not a sentence in a
+    sprint doc.** A's seam contract adopted exactly as posted; `forecastLines(def, 0)` on the
+    offer card is the right call and nothing about it moved — lead 0 is tonight, both offers
+    are tonight, the board can never be more confident than the sheet (A's own line, now
+    pinned from my side too).
+    **`forecastHonest(def)` (weather.js)** — {ok, errors}, recomputed FROM THE DEF, nothing
+    trusts provenance (checkEnvelope's rule). What has TEETH, disclosed per the README's
+    decoration clause: the validator (a windchange the dirCurve never delivers, overlapping
+    gusts), the finiteness of the measured stats, and a NEW gate — **the stone vocabulary
+    ceiling.** `STONE_WORD_CEILING = 2.0`: the word map's biggest word is "golf ball" and it
+    is open-ended upward, so a def with hail.size 2.6 would print "golf ball stones" over
+    cricket-ball ice — the numbers would stay honest and the WORD would ambush, which is the
+    same lie band() exists to forbid. At 1.0 ≈ 1.5 cm, 2.0 ≈ 3 cm is real golf-ball country;
+    shipped max is the icenight's 1.4. Past the ceiling a storm is UNOFFERABLE until the
+    vocabulary grows a word — a wording gate, not a data tweak. **Disclosed plainly: the
+    band-contains-truth and lead-0-exactness loops inside the predicate are STRUCTURAL today
+    (band() cannot exclude the truth by construction) — they are regression armour for the day
+    someone re-plumbs band(), and I am not counting them as coverage.**
+    **The walk (c.test): NIGHTS ∪ POOL, union taken from the shipped data.** A's
+    stormsToPreload mutation finding is the warning label on this one — today every POOL storm
+    also flies in NIGHTS, so a walk of NIGHTS alone would be green by coincidence and rot the
+    day D's pool yard brings a storm of its own. The union means that day changes the walk
+    without anyone editing a test. Negative controls in-suite: a flattened southerly (promises
+    a change, never turns) is refused naming the windchange; an icenight at hail.size 2.6 is
+    refused naming the vocabulary. Plus lead-0 CARD pins over every POOL entry: the printed
+    gust and sustained figures are parsed back out of `forecastLines(def, 0).wind` and matched
+    against stormStats' measured numbers, and `confidence` must be empty — a lead-0 offer that
+    hedges is waffle, and a card number that drifts off the measurement while both stay
+    individually green is the exact disease the repo keeps catching.
+    **The verdict on the shipped board: NO VETO.** All six authored storms pass; all five POOL
+    entries pass. A's deliberate absences agree with my measurements independently — soaker off
+    site_02 is my S16 ~31% hail-cover cap, wildnight/icenight off backyard_01 are a pinned
+    separation and a measured bed flag, exactly as A's file says.
+    **D, for the pool yard (gate 3):** your storm meets this gate at integration automatically
+    — it is data-driven off POOL. If it hails, keep the size ≤ 2.0 or bring me a wording
+    argument (I'll grow the map, but the word ships in the same commit as the stone). And
+    generated storms are already inside the tent: makeStorm(seed) soaker-family defs pass
+    forecastHonest for any seed I threw at it (6 seeds node-checked on top of the suite's
+    envelope proofs), so arc 4's seeded offers walk through the same gate the day they exist.
+
+[C] 2026-07-21 — 🔩 **GATE 1.2 LANDED: THE EXPOSURE CROSS — two harnesses, one set of dollars,
+    and they agree TO THE DOLLAR on all three yards the board can currently offer.** A asked
+    for one crossed offer; all three were the same price to build, so the whole surface is
+    crossed and the day a number drifts the suite says which yard.
+    **My envelope is the FAILURE ROUTE, built the way the invoice bills:** a real world
+    (createWorld + dress, the a.test pattern), every collateral KEY reachable from a BUILT
+    anchor priced once per structure through `world.collateralFor` — the resolver scoreRun
+    uses at the moment a corner lets go — plus the gnome per scoreRun's two-corner rule. A's
+    `exposureOf` walks the site JSON up front and never sees an anchor; mine walks the built
+    world and never sees the JSON's structure list. Two routes, one number, by construction
+    (the S14 pin pattern, third outing).
+    | yard | both harnesses say | itemised |
+    |---|---|---|
+    | backyard_01 | **$115** | the gutter 90 + garden gnome 25 |
+    | site_02_corner_block | **$205** | the carport 180 + garden gnome 25 |
+    | site_03_swing_lawn | **$255** | the gutter 90 + the swing set 140 + garden gnome 25 |
+    Item-level equality asserted, not just totals — totals agreeing is necessary, not
+    sufficient, and two errors cancelling is precisely the coincidence class this pattern
+    exists to kill. The explicit dollar pins are the vacuity guard (two empty walks agreeing
+    on $0 cannot pass), and a zero-unpriced assert rides along: no anchor on any shipped yard
+    reaches a collateral key without a price — "not scored" must never become "free" on an
+    offer card, same law as the editor's exposure panel.
+    **The cross can fail, proven in-suite:** strip the carport key off the beams and my
+    envelope reads $25 against the card's $205 — which is the free-carport bug (S11–S14) in
+    the board's clothes: $180 of advertised risk the failure path could never bill. That is
+    the drift this cross now catches structurally, on every run.
+    **A: your three numbers are confirmed from the failure side. No variable to find.**
+    Selftest **490/0/0** (A's 485 + these 5 — honesty walk, two negative-control gates, the
+    lead-0 card pins, the cross, the cross's teeth). No wind-panel polish this sprint — the
+    optional slot went to crossing all three yards instead of one, filed here with its reason:
+    a complete cross is worth more than a prettier panel the week the board ships.

web/world/js/tests/c.test.js

@@ -14,10 +14,18 @@
  */
 
 import * as THREE from '../../vendor/three.module.js';
-import { assert, assertClose, fixedLoop } from '../testkit.js';
+import { assert, assertClose, assertEq, fixedLoop } from '../testkit.js';
 import { FIXED_DT, checkContract, DEBRIS_PIECE_FIELDS, createStubWind } from '../contracts.js';
-import { loadStorm, createWind, windForSite, forecastLines, forecastFor, leadFor, hailBlockFor } from '../weather.js';
+import {
+  loadStorm, createWind, windForSite, forecastLines, forecastFor, leadFor, hailBlockFor,
+  forecastHonest, stormStats, STONE_WORD_CEILING,
+} from '../weather.js';
 import { loadSite, createWorld } from '../world.js';
+// SPRINT17 gate 1 — the board's weather side. NIGHTS ∪ POOL is every storm an
+// offer card can print; both are data, so the honesty walk below tracks them
+// without a test edit the day D's pool yard lands.
+import { NIGHTS } from '../week.js';
+import { POOL, exposureOf } from '../board.js';
 // GATE 2.3 — the GAME's own wind wiring, IMPORTED rather than re-typed. A pin
 // that copied main.js's two lines would agree with a copy of the game forever,
 // including on the day the game itself changed. "Two harnesses, one number"
@@ -1284,4 +1292,179 @@ export default async function run(t) {
       `membrane on carabiners (${mem20.hp} hp, ${mem20.cornersLost} lost) should read WORSE than cloth `
       + `(${cloth20.hp} hp, ${cloth20.cornersLost} lost) — the doubled load has stopped costing anything`);
   });
+
+  // ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+  // SPRINT17 gate 1 — THE BOARD'S WEATHER SIDE (C).
+  //
+  // A's seam contract (THREADS 2026-07-21): the offer card prints my
+  // forecastLines(def, 0), and "a storm the forecast can't describe honestly
+  // doesn't get offered" is MY rule to enforce. Enforced here, over the union
+  // of both night sources, so a new pool entry meets the gate at integration
+  // without anyone remembering to ask.
+  // ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+
+  // Every storm the board can put on a card, from BOTH sources, by
+  // construction. A's stormsToPreload mutation finding is the warning label:
+  // today every POOL storm also flies in NIGHTS, so a walk of NIGHTS alone
+  // would be green by coincidence and rot the day D's pool yard brings a storm
+  // of its own. The union is taken from the shipped data, so that day changes
+  // this walk without anyone editing a test.
+  const offerStormNames = [...new Set([
+    ...NIGHTS.map((n) => (typeof n === 'string' ? n : n.storm)),
+    ...POOL.map((p) => p.storm),
+  ])];
+  const offerDefs = {};
+  const offerLoadErrors = [];
+  for (const nm of offerStormNames) {
+    try { offerDefs[nm] = storms[nm] ?? await loadStorm(nm); }
+    catch (err) { offerLoadErrors.push(`${nm}: ${err.message}`); }
+  }
+
+  t.test('GATE 1 (S17): a storm the forecast cannot describe honestly is not offered', () => {
+    assert(offerLoadErrors.length === 0,
+      `offerable storms failed to load/validate:\n  ${offerLoadErrors.join('\n  ')}`);
+    // Vacuity guard: the union walk must actually be walking the shipped week.
+    assert(offerStormNames.length >= 6,
+      `only ${offerStormNames.length} offerable storms found — the NIGHTS ∪ POOL walk is broken`);
+    const failures = [];
+    for (const nm of offerStormNames) {
+      const h = forecastHonest(offerDefs[nm], nm);
+      if (!h.ok) failures.push(`${nm}:\n    ${h.errors.join('\n    ')}`);
+    }
+    assert(failures.length === 0,
+      'the board offers storms the forecast cannot describe honestly — pull them from POOL/NIGHTS '
+      + `or fix the def (A's contract: C vetoes, A pulls):\n  ${failures.join('\n  ')}`);
+  });
+
+  t.test('GATE 1 (S17): the honesty gate can fail — a lying change and an unspeakable stone are refused', () => {
+    // Negative controls through the SAME predicate the gate walk uses — the
+    // composition a pool-only storm exercises the day one exists. (The band-
+    // containment loops inside forecastHonest are structural — band() cannot
+    // exclude the truth by construction — and are disclosed as regression
+    // armour in its header, not counted as coverage. THESE two are the teeth.)
+    const lying = structuredClone(storms.storm_03_southerly);
+    lying.dirCurve = lying.dirCurve.map(([tt]) => [tt, lying.dirCurve[0][1]]);  // promises a change, never turns
+    const l = forecastHonest(lying, 'lying_southerly');
+    assert(!l.ok, 'a windchange the dirCurve never delivers passed the honesty gate');
+    assert(l.errors.some((e) => e.includes('windchange')),
+      `the refusal should name the lie, got:\n  ${l.errors.join('\n  ')}`);
+
+    const unspeakable = structuredClone(storms.storm_02b_icenight);
+    unspeakable.hail.size = STONE_WORD_CEILING + 0.6;
+    const u = forecastHonest(unspeakable, 'cricket_ball_night');
+    assert(!u.ok, `hail.size ${unspeakable.hail.size} passed — the vocabulary ceiling is decoration`);
+    assert(u.errors.some((e) => e.includes('vocabulary') || e.includes('ceiling')),
+      `the refusal should name the vocabulary, got:\n  ${u.errors.join('\n  ')}`);
+    // and the shipped icenight sits under the ceiling with honest headroom
+    assert(stormStats(storms.storm_02b_icenight).hailSize <= STONE_WORD_CEILING,
+      'the shipped icenight is over the vocabulary ceiling — the gate would pull a shipped night');
+  });
+
+  t.test('GATE 1 (S17): the offer card\'s lead-0 lines carry the measured truth', () => {
+    // The board prints forecastLines(def, 0) (A's pricedOffers — "the same
+    // call the job sheet makes"). Cross the card TEXT against stormStats'
+    // measured numbers, so the wording cannot drift off the measurement while
+    // both stay green alone. Walks the POOL: these are the cards a player
+    // reads about a night they have never flown.
+    for (const p of POOL) {
+      const def = offerDefs[p.storm];
+      const f = forecastLines(def, 0);
+      assert(f.confidence === '',
+        `${p.id}: a lead-0 offer hedges ("${f.confidence}") — tonight is exact and the card must not waffle`);
+      const g = f.wind.match(/gusts to ~(\d+) km\/h/);
+      assert(g, `${p.id}: the wind line lost its gust figure: "${f.wind}"`);
+      assertEq(g[1], (stormStats(def).gustPeak * 3.6).toFixed(0),
+        `${p.id}: the card's gust number is not the measured storm`);
+      const su = f.wind.match(/^sustained to (\d+)/);
+      assert(su, `${p.id}: the wind line lost its sustained figure: "${f.wind}"`);
+      assertEq(su[1], stormStats(def).sustained.toFixed(0),
+        `${p.id}: the card's sustained number is not the measured storm`);
+    }
+  });
+
+  // ── GATE 1.2 (S17): THE EXPOSURE CROSS — A's exposureOf vs the failure
+  // route, the S14 pin pattern (two harnesses, one number, by construction).
+  // Prep up front (Suite.test can't await); the tests skip honestly offline.
+  const crossWorlds = {};
+  for (const nm of ['site_02_corner_block', 'backyard_01', 'site_03_swing_lawn']) {
+    try {
+      const sj = await loadSite(nm);
+      const w = createWorld(new THREE.Scene(), { wind: createStubWind({ calm: true }), site: sj });
+      let dressed = true;
+      try { await w.dress(); } catch { dressed = false; }  // graybox anchors carry no GLB collateral keys
+      crossWorlds[nm] = { sj, w, dressed };
+    } catch (err) {
+      crossWorlds[nm] = { error: err.message };
+    }
+  }
+
+  /**
+   * MY envelope: what a failure can actually bill, gathered the way the game
+   * bills it (main.js scoreRun) — every collateral KEY reachable from a BUILT
+   * anchor, priced once per structure through world.collateralFor (the
+   * resolver the invoice uses), plus the gnome (billed on a two-corner
+   * collapse, priced off world.gnome). A's exposureOf walks the site JSON up
+   * front and never sees an anchor; this walks the built world and never sees
+   * the JSON's structure list. Two routes to one set of dollars — when they
+   * disagree, find the variable before either is tuned; it will be the
+   * harness (the S14 rule, verbatim).
+   */
+  const failureEnvelope = (w) => {
+    const keys = [...new Set(w.anchors.map((a) => a.collateral).filter(Boolean))];
+    const items = [];
+    const unpriced = [];
+    for (const k of keys) {
+      const p = w.collateralFor(k);
+      if (p) items.push({ what: p.label, cost: p.cost });
+      else unpriced.push(k);
+    }
+    if (Number.isFinite(w.gnome?.collateralValue)) {
+      items.push({ what: 'garden gnome', cost: w.gnome.collateralValue });
+    }
+    return { items, unpriced, total: items.reduce((s, i) => s + i.cost, 0) };
+  };
+
+  t.test('GATE 1.2 (S17): collateral exposure — two harnesses, one set of dollars', () => {
+    // The explicit dollar pins are the vacuity guard: two empty walks agreeing
+    // on $0 cannot pass here. 205 = carport 180 + gnome 25; 115 = gutter 90 +
+    // gnome 25; 255 = gutter 90 + swing set 140 + gnome 25 (the numbers A
+    // verified live on the board, and a.test pins per-structure). Every yard
+    // the board can currently offer is crossed — the gate asked for one.
+    const pins = { site_02_corner_block: 205, backyard_01: 115, site_03_swing_lawn: 255 };
+    for (const [nm, want] of Object.entries(pins)) {
+      const c = crossWorlds[nm];
+      if (c?.error) return `SKIPPED — no server for ${nm}: ${c.error}`;
+      if (!c.dressed) return `SKIPPED — ${nm} GLBs unavailable, graybox anchors carry no collateral keys`;
+      const mine = failureEnvelope(c.w);
+      const board = exposureOf(c.sj);
+      assertEq(mine.unpriced.length, 0,
+        `${nm}: anchors reach unpriced collateral (${mine.unpriced.join(', ')}) — exposure the card `
+        + 'cannot show, and "not scored" must never become "free"');
+      assertEq(mine.total, board.total, `${nm}: the two exposure harnesses disagree — find the variable`);
+      assertEq(mine.total, want, `${nm}: both harnesses agree on the WRONG number`);
+      // Totals agreeing is necessary, not sufficient — item-level agreement is
+      // what rules out two errors cancelling.
+      const key = (xs) => xs.map((i) => `${i.what}=$${i.cost}`).sort().join(' · ');
+      assertEq(key(mine.items), key(board.items),
+        `${nm}: totals agree but the itemisation differs — the agreement is a coincidence`);
+    }
+  });
+
+  t.test('GATE 1.2 (S17): the cross has teeth — strip the beam\'s key and the harnesses disagree', () => {
+    const c = crossWorlds.site_02_corner_block;
+    if (!c || c.error || !c.dressed) return 'SKIPPED — no dressed corner block (see the cross above)';
+    // The drift class this cross exists to catch: an anchor that loses its
+    // collateral key is $180 the offer card advertises and the failure path
+    // can never bill (the free-carport bug, S11–S14, wearing the board's
+    // clothes). Mutate the LIVE world — this is its last use in the suite —
+    // and the equality above must break, or it never could have.
+    const stripped = c.w.anchors.filter((a) => a.collateral === 'carport');
+    assert(stripped.length >= 2,
+      `only ${stripped.length} anchor(s) carry the carport key — the trap has lost its reach`);
+    for (const a of stripped) a.collateral = null;
+    const mine = failureEnvelope(c.w);
+    assertEq(mine.total, 25, `the stripped envelope should read gnome-only $25, got $${mine.total}`);
+    assert(mine.total !== exposureOf(c.sj).total,
+      'the harnesses still agree with the carport unreachable — the cross cannot fail');
+  });
 }

web/world/js/weather.js

@@ -23,6 +23,30 @@ export {
 const kmh = (ms) => ms * 3.6;
 const band = (b, fmt) => (b.hi - b.lo < 0.05 ? fmt(b.lo) : `${fmt(b.lo)}–${fmt(b.hi)}`);
 
+// SPRINT16 gate 3.3's word map, lifted to module scope in S17 so the honesty
+// gate below audits THE map the card prints from — a predicate checking a copy
+// of the vocabulary would agree with the copy forever, which is the exact drift
+// this repo keeps getting bitten by. Words map hail.size units (1.0 ≈ a 1.5 cm
+// stone): storm_03's 0.7 reads "pea" (its own comment's word), the soaker's
+// 0.45 "fine pea", the wild night's 1.3 and the ice night's 1.4 read "golf
+// balls" — the sizes cloth stops dead.
+const stoneWord = (v) => (v < 0.6 ? 'fine pea' : v <= 0.9 ? 'pea' : v <= 1.2 ? 'marble' : 'golf ball');
+
+/**
+ * Where the stone vocabulary stops being honest. "golf ball" is the map's
+ * biggest word and it is open-ended upward — a storm whose stones measure 2.6
+ * would still print "golf ball stones", underselling ice the way the numbers
+ * are forbidden to. The numeric bands stay truthful at any size (band() can't
+ * lie), but the card leads with the WORD, and a word that rules out what
+ * actually falls is the same ambush as a band that does. 2.0 is where the line
+ * sits: at 1.0 ≈ 1.5 cm, 2.0 ≈ 3 cm is real golf-ball territory, so the word
+ * holds all the way up to it; past it we are in cricket-ball country the map
+ * has no word for. Shipped max is the ice night's 1.4 — real headroom, hard
+ * ceiling. A storm above this is unofferable until the vocabulary grows a word
+ * for it, and that is a wording sprint, not a data tweak.
+ */
+export const STONE_WORD_CEILING = 2.0;
+
 /**
  * How vague a night reads when it is `nightsOut` nights away — the week IS the
  * forecast horizon, so tonight is exact (0) and the far end of the week is as
@@ -88,11 +112,8 @@ export function forecastLines(def, lead = 0) {
   // them; this owns the wording, same split as every other line here). The
   // stone is the fabric bet's whole argument: pea hail rattles through a
   // 2 mm weave, anything bigger cannot — so the size word is what tells a
-  // player which fabric tonight wants, before a dollar is spent. Words map
+  // player which fabric tonight wants, before a dollar is spent. The word map
-  // hail.size units (1.0 ≈ a 1.5 cm stone): storm_03's 0.7 reads "pea" (its
+  // itself is module-scope now (S17) — the offer-honesty gate audits it.
-  // own comment's word), the soaker's 0.45 "fine pea", the wild night's 1.3
-  // and the ice night's 1.4 read "golf balls" — the sizes cloth stops dead.
-  const stoneWord = (v) => (v < 0.6 ? 'fine pea' : v <= 0.9 ? 'pea' : v <= 1.2 ? 'marble' : 'golf ball');
   const sz = f.hail.size;
   const stones = f.hail.chance === 'none' ? '' : (
     stoneWord(sz.lo) === stoneWord(sz.hi)
@@ -117,6 +138,92 @@ export function forecastLines(def, lead = 0) {
   };
 }
 
+/**
+ * SPRINT17 gate 1 — CAN THE FORECAST DESCRIBE THIS STORM HONESTLY?
+ *
+ * The board's rule, stated in A's seam contract and enforced here: *a storm the
+ * forecast can't describe honestly doesn't get offered.* An offer card leads
+ * with my lines — if those lines can't tell the truth about a def, the def has
+ * no business on the board, however winnable the pairing is. c.test walks
+ * NIGHTS ∪ POOL through this, so a new pool entry (D's yard, arc-4 seeds)
+ * meets the gate at integration without anyone remembering to ask.
+ *
+ * Same contract shape as validateStorm: {ok, errors}, errors in English,
+ * recomputed FROM THE DEF — nothing here trusts the caller's provenance, so a
+ * hand-edited def fails on its own merits (the checkEnvelope rule).
+ *
+ * What has TEETH here, disclosed plainly (README: an assert that cannot fail
+ * is decoration):
+ *   · validateStorm — structural lies (a windchange the dirCurve never
+ *     delivers, overlapping gusts, a flatlining tail) really do fail.
+ *   · the stone vocabulary ceiling — a def with stones past STONE_WORD_CEILING
+ *     really does fail (the icenight at hail.size 2.6 is the negative control).
+ *   · finiteness of the measured stats — a curve that produces NaN fails.
+ * What is STRUCTURAL and rides along as regression armour, not as a live gate:
+ * band-contains-truth and lead-0 exactness are guaranteed by forecastFor's
+ * band() today (lo=min(v,·), hi=max(v,·), width→0 at lead 0) — those loops can
+ * only fail on the day someone re-plumbs band(), which is precisely the day
+ * they should. Disclosed here and in THREADS rather than dressed up as
+ * coverage.
+ *
+ * @param {object} def  parsed storm JSON
+ * @param {string} [name]
+ * @returns {{ok: boolean, errors: string[]}}
+ */
+export function forecastHonest(def, name = def?.name ?? 'storm') {
+  const errors = [];
+  const v = validateStorm(def, name);
+  if (!v.ok) errors.push(...v.errors);
+  if (!def || typeof def !== 'object' || !v.ok) return { ok: false, errors };
+
+  // The truth must be measurable before it can be told.
+  const s = stormStats(def);
+  for (const k of ['sustained', 'gustPeak', 'rainPeak', 'rainPeakMmPerHour',
+                   'hailPeak', 'hailSeconds', 'hailSize']) {
+    if (!Number.isFinite(s[k])) {
+      errors.push(`${name}: stormStats.${k} is not finite — no honest line can be printed from it`);
+    }
+  }
+
+  // The vocabulary must reach the stone. Numbers band honestly at any size;
+  // the WORD is the card's opening argument and it must not undersell ice.
+  if (s.hailSeconds > 0 && s.hailSize > STONE_WORD_CEILING) {
+    errors.push(`${name}: hail.size ${s.hailSize} is past the stone vocabulary's ceiling `
+      + `(${STONE_WORD_CEILING}) — "${stoneWord(s.hailSize)}" would undersell what falls; `
+      + 'grow the word map before offering this storm');
+  }
+
+  // Recompute the band promises from the def (structural today — see header).
+  const contains = (b, val, what, lead) => {
+    if (val == null || b == null) return;
+    if (!(Number.isFinite(b.lo) && Number.isFinite(b.hi))) {
+      errors.push(`${name}: ${what} band at lead ${lead} is not finite`);
+    } else if (val < b.lo - 1e-9 || val > b.hi + 1e-9) {
+      errors.push(`${name}: ${what} band [${b.lo}, ${b.hi}] at lead ${lead} rules out the truth ${val}`);
+    }
+  };
+  for (const lead of [0, 0.5, 1]) {
+    const f = forecastFor(def, lead);
+    contains(f.sustained, s.sustained, 'sustained', lead);
+    contains(f.gustPeak, s.gustPeak, 'gustPeak', lead);
+    contains(f.rain, s.rainPeak, 'rain', lead);
+    contains(f.rainMmPerHour, s.rainPeakMmPerHour, 'rainMmPerHour', lead);
+    contains(f.hail.seconds, s.hailSeconds, 'hail.seconds', lead);
+    contains(f.hail.size, s.hailSize, 'hail.size', lead);
+    contains(f.changeAt, s.changeAt, 'changeAt', lead);
+    if (lead === 0) {
+      for (const [what, b] of [['sustained', f.sustained], ['gustPeak', f.gustPeak], ['rain', f.rain]]) {
+        if (b.lo !== b.hi) errors.push(`${name}: lead-0 ${what} band [${b.lo}, ${b.hi}] hedges — tonight is exact`);
+      }
+      if (s.hailSeconds > 0 && f.hail.chance === 'none') {
+        errors.push(`${name}: hails for ${s.hailSeconds.toFixed(1)}s but tonight's card says "none"`);
+      }
+    }
+  }
+
+  return { ok: errors.length === 0, errors };
+}
+
 // Resolved against this module, not the server root: server.py serves the repo
 // root (so the 2D prototype stays reachable), but the demo bench serves web/.
 // import.meta.url is right under both, and under whatever Lane A does next.