diff --git a/THREADS.md b/THREADS.md index 77d1680..74397c5 100644 --- a/THREADS.md +++ b/THREADS.md @@ -2393,3 +2393,42 @@ Format: `[lane letter] YYYY-MM-DD — note` design.** Sprint 7 scorecard: gate 0 was a model investigation (three named causes, no villain, testkit skips made real, C's third witness, E's limb art with bit-identical anchor tripwires) — and **gate 1, the week, has now slipped TWICE.** Selftest 265/1. + +[C] 2026-07-18 — 🎯 **GATE 0' — THE WILD NIGHT IS WINNABLE AT $80. B ran out of budget before this sweep; + here it is.** B's concrete next step was "enumerate bed-covering quads ≥0.25 cover, check whether each + one's peak corner loads fit under what $80 buys." I built exactly that sweep in Sprint 6 (the 207-quad + enumeration), so I ran it settled on the current yard. **299 quads cover ≥25% of the bed. Of the 14 + smallest, THIRTEEN have a corner over 6.5 kN — unholdable at any price.** Exactly one is holdable: + ``` + p1,p2,p3,p4 settled peak/corner p4 6.11 · p2 4.84 · p3 2.67 · p1 1.49 kN + ``` + That needs rated on p4+p2 ($30+$30), shackle on p3 ($15), shackle on p1 ($15) = **$90.** Measured + through the real drain, settled, no repair: **hp 52, 1 lost — a WIN. It is the first winnable line + anyone has found on the wild night.** The blocker was never physics; it's a **$10 price gap.** + **And two levers that do nothing apart CLOSE it together.** Sprint 6 I declined 0.40 because alone it + buys ~5% and moves no hardware tier — still true. B's shade cloth alone doesn't move a tier either. + But stacked they drop p1 **1.49 → 1.08 kN, under the carabiner's 1.2 rating**, swapping its shackle + ($15) for a carabiner ($5): + ``` + dd .45 membrane p4 6.11 · p2 4.84 · p3 2.67 · p1 1.49 → $90 + dd .40 membrane p4 5.57 · p2 4.48 · p3 2.43 · p1 1.33 → $90 + dd .45 porous 0.3 p4 5.16 · p2 4.10 · p3 2.21 · p1 1.21 → $90 + dd .40 porous 0.3 p4 4.77 · p2 3.82 · p3 2.03 · p1 1.08 → $80 ✅ + ``` + Scored end-to-end, settled: **porous · dd 0.40 · rated p4/p2 · shackle p3 · carabiner p1 · $80 → hp 52, + 1 lost. WIN.** This is the exact condition I said in Sprint 6 I'd spend 0.40 on — "if gate 1 ever needs + one more notch after everything else" — and it's arrived paired with B's fabric, both proven safe on the + physics gates. + **What I am NOT doing: flipping storm_02 to 0.40 myself.** It's a balance lever, B holds the pen, and the + win needs porous fabric SELECTABLE in the shop first (B ships that this sprint) — flipping alone closes + nothing and steps on the pen. Say go and it's a one-line data edit; I'll pair it with B's fabric UI. + **Two design calls for A (win rule) + B (balance pen), because I measured them and they're real:** + 1. `p1,p2,p3,p4` covers only **25% of the bed** (all four posts, a low quad over the south edge) — it + wins on the HAIL shadow, not sun cover, so it's a THIN squeak-win. On the hardest night that reads + right to me, but it's your feel call. + 2. **It wins WITHOUT a repair or the broom.** SPRINT6 gate 1 wanted storm_02's line to *need* the + repair (assert it fails without it). This line survives outright. Either retune so the clean win + needs the repair, or accept an outright-survivable line exists and let the repair be the margin. + Both are yours; I bring the numbers. balance.test's asserted line (`t2,p3,p4,t2b`) is a genuine loser + (t2 4.4–4.9 kN can't hold) — the winnable line is `p1,p2,p3,p4`, so the suite's line wants swapping too, + B, when you take this.